1. 地示了,在一由研究,就2045年的分析所,被“火天指”(FWI)之估量的全球化(色:端火天加;色:少)。FWI得了,包括低降雨量及在等,一起增一域端火天的合。
This map shows global change in a measure called “fire weather index” (FWI) predicted by the study's analysis for the year 2045 (red: greater extreme fire weather; blue: less). FWI captures a combination of conditions, including low rainfall and high winds, that together increase a region’s extreme fire weather condition.
由美太空署高解析度候之地球交中心行的分析下,倘若全球持上升,且到超工化前水平2度,全世界的人可能同面,具重後果之候的多重影。
Analysis by the NASA Earth Exchange of high-resolution climate projections concludes that, if global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously, with serious consequences.
If global temperatures keep rising and each 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously.
倘若全球持上升,且到超工化前水平2℃(3.6),全世界的人可能同面,候的多重影。
This is according to a NASA-led study that analyzed the projected impacts of such warming to understand how different climate effects might combine. A 2-degree rise in global temperatures is considered a critical threshold above which dangerous and cascading effects of human-generated climate change will occur.
是根美太空署所,分析了暖化推的影,以解不同候影,如何合在一起的一研究。全球上升2氏度,被是界值,超值,生人招致之候,危且的效。
The researchers found that more than a quarter of the world’s population could experience an additional month of severe heat stress each year compared to the middle of the 20th century (1950-1979). High temperatures and drought could combine dangerously in places like the Amazon, increasing the risk of wildfire.
此些研究人,20世中(1950-1979年)相下,多於四分之一的世界人口,每年可能多一月重的力(荷)。在似的地,高及乾旱可能危地合在一起,而增加生野火的。
In the American West, extreme fire weather will likely be more intense and last longer. To investigate potentially compounding effects of rising temperatures, the study’s authors worked with a specially processed set of climate predictions.
在美西部,端火天可能更烈,且持更。了查研究度上升的在合影,研究的撰文者,以一特殊理的候,行了研究。
The predictions were originally generated by 35 of the world’s leading climate models – specifically, contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which includes models developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
此些原本是由,35世界主要候模型所生。特是耦合模型交互比(CMIP)的者,其中包括美太空署(NASA)戈德太空研究所,的多模型。
CMIP provides climate projections that help the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other international and national climate groups understand historical, current, and future climate changes.
CMIP提供了,有助於政府候委,及其他家的候,解去、前及未候的候。
Researchers at the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) then took the output from CMIP6 models and used advanced statistical techniques to “downscale” them, improving the resolution significantly.
之後,於美太空署地球交中心(NEX)的研究人,取得了CMIP6 模型的出,使用若干先的技,“小”它的模,而著提高解析度。
NEX uses supercomputers at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California’s Silicon Valley to analyze vast amounts of data collected by aircraft and satellites or, in this case, projections produced by climate models. The resulting NEX dataset supporting this research is available to the public and can be found online.
NEX使用了,NASA位於加州矽谷,艾姆斯研究中心的超算分析,由航空器及星收集的大量,或在此事例中,由候模型生的多。支持研究,而生的NEX集,可公使用,且能在路上找到。
With the new dataset in hand, NEX researchers at Ames analyzed the downscaled projections to assess the changes predicted for six key climate variables. They examined changes in air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, short- and longwave solar radiation, and wind speed at a point when warming passes 2°C.
在手中有新集的情下,NEX於艾姆斯研究中心的研究人,分析了小模的,就六候,估的化。他探究了,暖化超2°C,於、降雨量、相度、短波波太射及速的化。
“We wanted to study how these aspects of the environment are projected to change and what their combined impacts could mean for people around the world,” said Taejin Park, first author on the paper and a researcher at Ames with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute (BAERI).
在包括境研究所(BAERI)在之艾姆斯研究中心的研究,兼文首要撰文人,Taejin Park宣:「我想要研究,被的此些境面如何化,及其合影世界各地的人,可能意味著什。」
The researchers paid special attention to two climate indicators: heat stress – or the combined effects of temperature and humidity on the human body – and fire weather – which considers temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind. Most regions of the world will experience higher heat stress, they found, while countries closer to the equator will suffer from a greater number of days considered extreme.
此些研究人特注候指:力(即度度人的合影)及火天(考度、降雨量、度)。他,世界上大多地,更高的力,而靠近赤道的家,遭受更多定的端天。
“The escalating impacts of all the climate extremes studied could cause significant damage to communities and economies, from fires, floods, landslides, and crop failures that may result,” said Ramakrishna Nemani, senior scientist at BAERI and co-author of the study.
研究合撰人,境研究所深科家,Ramakrishna Nemani宣:「研究之所有端候,逐步大的影,可能社及造成重大失。因,那致火、洪水、山滑坡及作物歉收。」
The NEX downscaled dataset used for this research provides global, daily climate projections, derived from CMIP6 climate models, out to the year 2100. The day-to-day nature of the NEX product is important for capturing the extremes. If merged into a monthly average, Park explained, a few days projected to be dangerously hot and humid could get lost in the numbers, concealing the risk for human lives.
供研究使用之美太空署地球交中心(NEX)小的集,提供了源自CMIP6候模型,截至2100年,全球、每日的候。NEX生之每日生的自然,就得知此些端候而言,非常重要。Park解,倘若入月平均值中,被之危炎和潮的天,可能在此些字中失去意,而匿了人生命的。
The level of local and regional detail – the resolution of the projections – is higher in the NEX product than most climate projections, which could help leaders develop targeted climate adaptation and mitigation plans.
於NEX生中之地方及域的目水平(的分辨率),高於大多候。可能有助於人,展定候及解。
Raw climate model projections typically give results for areas of about 120 by 120 miles (200 by 200 kilometers), while the NEX downscaling work increases that resolution to about 15 by 15 miles (25 by 25 kilometers).
原始候模型,通常生120 x120英里(200 x 200公里)域的果,而NEX小研究的模,提高了那解析度,大15 x 15英里(25 x 25公里)。
Downscaling this much data is a big job, and NEX researchers relied on NASA’s powerful Pleiades supercomputer at Ames. Pleiades helps solve some of NASA’s most challenging problems, playing an important role in rocket launches for the Artemis program, fuel-efficient aircraft designs, and studies of Earth’s climate.
小此大量的模,是一的工作。NEX的研究人依 NASA位於艾姆斯研究中心,大的Pleiades超。Pleiades助解了NASA,一些最具挑性的。在阿提米斯(Artemis program)的火箭射、省燃料的及地球候的研究中,扮演一重要角色。
NEX scientists hope that the downscaled climate projections could help decision-makers prepare for and protect their regions against climate impacts. For example, a local policymaker could decide to build more flood barriers or pursue less development in flood-prone areas, said Ian Brosnan, co-author of the paper and principal scientist at NEX.
NEX的科家希望,小候的模,能助策者候影做好,及保其地免遭候影。於NEX的首席科家,兼文合撰人,Ian Brosnan表示,譬如,地策者能定,在洪水易地,建造更多的防洪屏障,或少。
The NEX dataset can also help new commercial and non-profit enterprises develop customized climate-risk assessments for the private and public sectors.
NEX的集也能助,新的商及非利企私及公共部,客化的候估。
“The downscaled NASA data is in really accessible form,” Brosnan said. “People everywhere with some technical ability – from undergraduate students to experienced climate scientists – can dig into the information these projections contain.”
Brosnan宣:「小的NASA,是於全然可存取的形式。任何地方具有相技能力的人,本科生到富的候科家,皆能深入探究此些具有的息。」
址:https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3278/nasa-study-reveals-compounding-climate-risks-at-two-degrees-of-warming/
翻:
文章定位: