V2EX causal inference

Causal Inference

Definition / 定义

因果推断:用数据与研究设计来判断“一个因素是否导致另一个结果”,并估计这种因果效应有多大(强调因果关系而不仅是相关性)。在统计学、流行病学、经济学与社会科学中很常见。

Pronunciation / 发音(IPA)

/kzl/ /nfrns/

Examples / 例句

Causal inference helps researchers tell whether a new policy actually reduces crime.
因果推断帮助研究者判断一项新政策是否真的能降低犯罪率。

Using causal inference methods like instrumental variables and propensity scores, the team estimated the treatment effect despite confounding.
研究团队使用工具变量、倾向得分等因果推断方法,在存在混杂因素的情况下仍估计了治疗效应。

Etymology / 词源

causal 来自拉丁语 causa(原因、理由),表示“与原因有关的”。inference 来自拉丁语 inferre(带来、引出),引申为“根据证据得出结论”。合起来强调“从证据中推导出因果结论”。

Related Words / 相关词汇

Notable Works / 文献与作品中的使用

  • Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference(Judea Pearl)
  • Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer(Judea Pearl, Madelyn Glymour, Nicholas P. Jewell)
  • Causal Inference: What If(Miguel A. Hernán, James M. Robins)
  • Mostly Harmless Econometrics(Joshua D. Angrist, Jrn-Steffen Pischke)
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